| 30 JAN 2010 at 8:02pm |
IviniaGuild Master
Posts : 4459
Joined: 7 JUN 2003
Location: US
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Lucien21 (30 JAN 2010 6:12pm)
(Even the harshest critics on wall street see this selling 3-4 million units this year and double that next year.)
That's the thing. You guys are making it sound like these are brand new people coming into the market. Those millions of people are the same ones who probably already own a PC or a Mac. I don't see how this is going to usher in a new group of gamers. Odds are, they are already gamers.
As someone else has already pointed out, I would rather play my games on a 25.5" widescreen monitor like I have now, kicking back in my comfy computer chair with speakers that surround me for complete 3d sound.
I would much rather sit with my hands resting in one place on my keyboard and mouse - not moving my arms all over a screen for hours on end. Not to mention that I currently don't have to keep cleaning my monitor of smudges from moving my hands all over it.
Will it sell millions? Yes. Will it be a great idea? Yes. Will it dramatically change the landscape of gaming? Heck no.
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 8:07pm |
IviniaGuild Master
Posts : 4459
Joined: 7 JUN 2003
Location: US
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Rael (30 JAN 2010 7:20pm)
If by my next birthday the iPad was a failure,
Whoa, whoa, whoa...
now you are modifying the terms of the argument. Your post should be, "If by my next birthday the iPad hasn't dramatically changed the face of gaming."
You have just backed out by saying "the iPad was a failure". Heck, it might topple the Kindle and revolutionize the printed publications. I'm not anywhere NEAR questioning it's potential on that front.
I thought we were talking specifically as a gaming device.
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 8:11pm |
| Deleted User | Originally Posted By Rael (30 JAN 2010 7:20pm)
Which means FIGHT!!
Look, I'll make it simpler and more fun to you: tomorrow is my birthday so it's impossible for me to forget the date. If by my next birthday the iPad was a failure, I will send free copies of my new game to everybody that posted on this topic and opposed my theory. If on the other hand the iPad was a hit, and adventures have been released for it, I will send the copies to the posters that agreed with me (which are the minority anyway )
Ok, please put my name down. I oppose your theory, if you mean AG's made in the last 5 years. If we're happy with any AG's at all, even text adventures, etc, then I agree with you. Whatever
I
need to do
for a free copy
of your new game
Btw, Happy Birthday for tomorrow!
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 8:40pm |
JKingSchattenjger
Posts : 2350
Joined: 4 MAY 2008
Location: 0
Status : Offline | For the record I certainly agree with your hypophesis, Augustin. It seems a no-brainer to me, that a device of that size would have sufficient faculties for playing adventure games. If we take as a given that App Store distribution will not be a significant stumbling block, which I am willing to entertain, then it's only natural.
You can't kill someone in a studio.
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 8:52pm |
| Deleted User | Originally Posted By JKing (30 JAN 2010 8:40pm)
For the record I certainly agree with your hypophesis, Augustin. It seems a no-brainer to me, that a device of that size would have sufficient faculties for playing adventure games. If we take as a given that App Store distribution will not be a significant stumbling block, which I am willing to entertain, then it's only natural.
Don't listen to him. He's just trying to get a free game out of you!
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 8:57pm |
| Deleted User | Originally Posted By Ivinia (30 JAN 2010 8:07pm)
Originally Posted By Rael (30 JAN 2010 7:20pm)
If by my next birthday the iPad was a failure,
Whoa, whoa, whoa...
now you are modifying the terms of the argument. Your post should be, "If by my next birthday the iPad hasn't dramatically changed the face of gaming."
You have just backed out by saying "the iPad was a failure". Heck, it might topple the Kindle and revolutionize the printed publications. I'm not anywhere NEAR questioning it's potential on that front.
I thought we were talking specifically as a gaming device.
Yes, Agustin is cheating now, because
he just realised
that he actually might have to
give away some free games. We're onto you, Agustin! >
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 9:44pm |
MrLipidPrivate Detective
Posts : 666
Joined: 10 OCT 2002
Status : Offline | I've been looking around and can't find another discussion this spirited on any other games board. Couple of the boards just dismissed the topic outright. (New Apple tablet, ho-hum.) One board was mostly negative. (New Apple tablet, ACK!) And then there's JA. Which causes me to ask: Why is this the only place with such vocal advocates?
And if this is the only place, where are the millions of new tablet adventure gamers going to be coming from? And why would a tablet lure them when PCs, Macs, phones, handhelds and consoles haven't?
Just asking.
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 10:04pm |
IviniaGuild Master
Posts : 4459
Joined: 7 JUN 2003
Location: US
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By MrLipid (30 JAN 2010 9:44pm)
And then there's JA. Which causes me to ask: Why is this the only place with such vocal advocates?
Because debates like this are encouraged here?
Because deep down we all respect each others opinions and don't take things personally?
And if this is the only place, where are the millions of new tablet adventure gamers going to be coming from? And why would a tablet lure them when PCs, Macs, phones, handhelds and consoles haven't?
Because you and I are on the side of right on this one, Mr. Lipid.
Just guessing.
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 10:32pm |
SirDaveGuild Master
Posts : 4950
Joined: 17 OCT 2002
Location: US
Status : Offline | I am surprised by the apparent dismissal of the signposts that the iPad could further an already successful concept that bodes well for the future of adventure gaming. There has simply never been anything to compare with what the iPhone/iTouch has accomplished in a short period of time. Never in Apple's wildest dreams did it expect to see the many thousands of apps selling the way they are these days. Developers are falling all over themselves to write apps in this format.
Never before has a company been successful in creating a format that allows developers to create applications & games with standard parameters and to distribute them in such an effective way to a captive audience and with an absolutely optimal setting for impulsive buying! This format has already proved itself effective and successful.
So, there is no reason but to believe that the iPad has every likelihood of advancing the success of the concept not only because of the benefits of the larger size, but also because it will not be tied to a phone. IMO, the latter has been a bit of an impediment to the success of the apps/gaming applications because the iPhone has very limited battery life for that sort of use and that has soured some people. The surge in sales of the iTouch in the last year has been (IMO) due to the fact that the apps/games are so useful and so enjoyed that people want dedicated hardware for that purpose.
Which once again leads me to point out that all of this can only go in the direction of being an exciting foundation for a new way of developing & purchasing adventure games. Mark my words. And btw: this may not occur in just one year, but I forecast that in two years you'll see adventure games arriving relatively frequently for the iPad format: both older and newer AGs!
The future ain't what it used to be!
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 11:34pm |
CarolineJA+ Overseer
Posts : 16552
Joined: 28 JAN 2007
Location: AU
Status : Offline | I think the marketing strategy for this item is pretty smart. They have two months to let the marketplace point out what the announced iPad doesn't have but they wish it did - thus giving valuable feedback to Apple. Already I see people want it to have a camera and phone. Can you imagine? It's too big to hold upto your face so you'd have people everywhere shouting at it from arm's length. What a noisy, irritating world these toys are creating.
Also, for now, Kindle is only available in USA and iPad has no book downloading deal in place for Australia. We are currently locked into strict anti-piracy laws to protect our publishing industry but I have read that the news media are very interested in internet downloads. The writing is on the wall for newspapers although currently 1b are sold around the world every day. The tricky bit will be getting people to pay for internet information.
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 11:35pm |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Alright, now wait a second. Yes, I was first and foremost focusing my bet on the success of the iPad - I don't think an entire year is a realistic timeframe to decide whether the device has changed the landscape of adventure gaming or not. And to be even more realistic, I didn't quite say "it will dramatically change the adventure genre" but quite possibly boost it. This is still tricky to measure though unless we settle on certain indicators, ie: number of published adventures, developers working for the platform, etc etc. My timeframe of one year (tongue-in-cheek or not) was mostly referring to the overall success of the iPad and games in general for the device (all genres) - keep in mind there is plenty of opposition, here and everywhere else, claiming that the iPad will be a sound failure. You must give me some more time to prove you it boosted the adventure genre.
So it's not like I'm cheating on you - you people are twisting my arm here
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 11:36pm |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By TheTraveler (30 JAN 2010 8:11pm)
Ok, please put my name down. I oppose your theory, if you mean AG's made in the last 5 years. If we're happy with any AG's at all, even text adventures, etc, then I agree with you. Whatever
I
need to do
for a free copy
of your new game
Btw, Happy Birthday for tomorrow!
Offer valid until post #100
But, I'll make an exception for you :
Thanks for the birthday wishes!
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| 30 JAN 2010 at 11:54pm |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By MrLipid (30 JAN 2010 9:44pm)
And if this is the only place, where are the millions of new tablet adventure gamers going to be coming from? And why would a tablet lure them when PCs, Macs, phones, handhelds and consoles haven't?
I've more or less explained my logic behind that: PCs, Macs and consoles all have their audiences already and adventures clearly won't find their way with them anymore. The iPhone/iPod Touch lured a whole new audience to gaming (no question about that) so the tablet should at least capture a great part of this audience and possibly bring further newcomers as well.
So, we can agree the iPhone/iTouch isn't necessarily good for adventures with such a small screen or, to put it somehow, not very tempting. On the other hand, the iPad is most certainly better suited. And don't disregard the touchscreen either. It may be the most right combination in a long, long time.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 12:08am |
IviniaGuild Master
Posts : 4459
Joined: 7 JUN 2003
Location: US
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By SirDave (30 JAN 2010 10:32pm)
Never in Apple's wildest dreams did it expect to see the many thousands of apps selling the way they are these days. Developers are falling all over themselves to write apps in this format.
C'mon Dave, gimme a break (Unchained - Van Halen)
You of all people should know this has a LOT to do with pricing. Big Fish got huge by doing their club and selling games at $6.99. The iPhone App store sells the vast majority of apps for under $3 - many for $.99.
They also saw what their iPod did and how people were much quicker to hit the buy now button for a $.99 song as opposed to $14 for an entire CD.
They knew exactly what they were doing and what to expect.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 12:10am |
IviniaGuild Master
Posts : 4459
Joined: 7 JUN 2003
Location: US
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Rael (30 JAN 2010 11:34pm)
And to be even more realistic, I didn't quite say "it will dramatically change the adventure genre" but quite possibly boost it.
Hey, you embellished, so I embellished...
I really don't think you can count old games being released in the new format as an indicator. It's what new developers do with the new technology that matters.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 12:54am |
SirDaveGuild Master
Posts : 4950
Joined: 17 OCT 2002
Location: US
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Ivinia (31 JAN 2010 12:08am)
Originally Posted By SirDave (30 JAN 2010 10:32pm)
Never in Apple's wildest dreams did it expect to see the many thousands of apps selling the way they are these days. Developers are falling all over themselves to write apps in this format.
C'mon Dave, gimme a break (Unchained - Van Halen)
You of all people should know this has a LOT to do with pricing. Big Fish got huge by doing their club and selling games at $6.99. The iPhone App store sells the vast majority of apps for under $3 - many for $.99.
They also saw what their iPod did and how people were much quicker to hit the buy now button for a $.99 song as opposed to $14 for an entire CD.
They knew exactly what they were doing and what to expect.
Hindsight is 20/20. I don't think anyone, especially Apple knew that both the apps would sell like this and also that so many developers would find this a venue worth supporting. A simple Google search supports this premise.
It's interesting to see how the 99 cent price point works in practice. If the app gets anywhere near bad reviews, people won't even spend 99 cents. On the other hand, apps that consist of nothing more than several classic novels in the public domain in a nice readable format have sold in the several thousands at 99 cents. None of this is necessarily intuitive or something one could count on -from the get-go- going into the development of the iPhone/iTouch format.
But it's also interesting to observe that people appreciate quality and are willing to spend several dollars on the apps that are original and provide challenging content. In fact, in the realm of reverse-psychology or common-sense (depending on one's perspective), rather than people jumping in and spending 99 cents for anything & everything, there is a sense that in some categories people tend to see an app or game at $2.99 as likely being of higher quality and more worth the money than one that is 99 cents. That seems to operate with the dozens of Sudoku apps where the $2.99 and the $7.99 apps sell very well up against those that are only 99 cents.
When it comes to adventure games, I see no reason to believe that people will not easily send $4.99 for an AG for iPad and even as much as $9.99. The $5-$10 price point will be a lot less than current boxed games and comparable to internet downloaded games and the potential sales have the possibility of being greater than either of those two sources. All of this bodes well for profits for small indie developers. Successful businesses rise & fall on successful business plans and I see no downside for an indie game developer writing for this format, particularly because the investment required is about as small as it gets.
When it comes to older games, I am willing to bet that with the success of the re-release of Myst for the iPhone/iTouch, Cyan will release the other Myst games for the iPad and many of the LucasArts games will likely be released as well (in addition to the already-released Monkey Island). Kheops has already re-released 2 or 3 games and I'm sure more will follow.
The future ain't what it used to be!
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 1:48am |
IviniaGuild Master
Posts : 4459
Joined: 7 JUN 2003
Location: US
Status : Offline | Agreed. One important thing though isn't so much the device itself, but the 70% the developer gets that have made them fall over themselves to write apps for it. Portals give around 30-35%. I'm actually surprised that the portals haven't made the casual games more lucrative for developers as a result of the iPhone. Surely they are now hard pressed to release a "new game everyday" when many developers have jumped into iPhone development with both feet.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 2:26am |
MrLipidPrivate Detective
Posts : 666
Joined: 10 OCT 2002
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Rael (30 JAN 2010 11:54pm)
Originally Posted By MrLipid (30 JAN 2010 9:44pm)
And if this is the only place, where are the millions of new tablet adventure gamers going to be coming from? And why would a tablet lure them when PCs, Macs, phones, handhelds and consoles haven't?
I've more or less explained my logic behind that: PCs, Macs and consoles all have their audiences already and adventures clearly won't find their way with them anymore. The iPhone/iPod Touch lured a whole new audience to gaming (no question about that) so the tablet should at least capture a great part of this audience and possibly bring further newcomers as well.
So, we can agree the iPhone/iTouch isn't necessarily good for adventures with such a small screen or, to put it somehow, not very tempting. On the other hand, the iPad is most certainly better suited. And don't disregard the touchscreen either. It may be the most right combination in a long, long time.
So what we're really waiting for is an audience made up of folks who aren't currently gamers on any platform who suddenly succumb to a device that reacts to a fingertip dragged or tapped on a highly polished sheet of glass.
Meanwhile, the existing venues probably have all the audience they are likely to attract.
Hmm. We'll see.
By the way, interesting to note that the game developers who have been interviewed say they have 60 days before the iPad ships to develop product. In other words, the developers got to see the device for the first time along with the rest of the world. Apparently Apple didn't share specs that would have enabled them to get a head start.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 3:42am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By MrLipid (31 JAN 2010 2:26am)
So what we're really waiting for is an audience made up of folks who aren't currently gamers on any platform who suddenly succumb to a device that reacts to a fingertip dragged or tapped on a highly polished sheet of glass.
Yes, which is exactly what happened with the iPhone, an already proven existing market. Say what you want about the touch controls and the glass display, they work beautifully and the variety and just plain cleverness of iPhone-specific games out there never ceases to amaze. Also, we shouldn't disregard the accelerometer either which is being used with great results as well. There's a reason why people are talking about the "iPhone economy" which is far from being just a term.
Meanwhile, the existing venues probably have all the audience they are likely to attract.
Hard to tell but it seems so. The way I see it, consoles and PCs are stagnant (in terms of audiences per each platform or genre).
By the way, interesting to note that the game developers who have been interviewed say they have 60 days before the iPad ships to develop product. In other words, the developers got to see the device for the first time along with the rest of the world. Apparently Apple didn't share specs that would have enabled them to get a head start.
Partly true. Some developers were given a heads up and were able to port some demos to the iPad in a matter of weeks. This is an extremely important point: if you're already a game developer for the iPhone, then porting to the iPad is nearly trivial. I think it's safe to say there will be a very juicy catalogue for the device when it's released, simply because it's quick and cheap for the hundreds of existing developers to code for it. This is an opportunity they won't miss, I tell you.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 3:43am |
CarolineJA+ Overseer
Posts : 16552
Joined: 28 JAN 2007
Location: AU
Status : Offline | This is only the first of its kind. The British are developing a flexible screen which could join the growing ranks of e-readers.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 4:03am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Ivinia (31 JAN 2010 12:10am)
I really don't think you can count old games being released in the new format as an indicator. It's what new developers do with the new technology that matters.
Agreed. And note I merely mentioned the iPhone as only potentially scratching the surface - by all means, no one has seriously tackled fresh adventures for the device yet. You could even argue (with much reason) that people bought thousands of copies of Monkey Island, Steel Sky and Myst for the iPhone because they were household names. Still, that's an audience you have there and it can't be just adventure veterans, not with the enormous number of downloads - give them a good adventure and I'll bet they buy it.
Also, let's keep in mind that the iPhone is a very young platform, heck the App Store has been around for less than two years. Now, the development cycle of an adventure is of course much longer than most games being constantly released for the device. It's only natural that not many fresh adventures have appeared yet but I'm certain several ones must be on their way.
My theory anyway is that for mobile devices, as far as adventure games go, the iPad will be the real deal.
BTW the only reason this topic is so huge and still persists is because we're being intelligent, polite and open to hear everybody else's opinion. Wouldn't it be great if the whole internet was like this?
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 4:06am |
MrLipidPrivate Detective
Posts : 666
Joined: 10 OCT 2002
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By Rael (31 JAN 2010 3:42am)
Originally Posted By MrLipid (31 JAN 2010 2:26am)
So what we're really waiting for is an audience made up of folks who aren't currently gamers on any platform who suddenly succumb to a device that reacts to a fingertip dragged or tapped on a highly polished sheet of glass.
Yes, which is exactly what happened with the iPhone, an already proven existing market. Say what you want about the touch controls and the glass display, they work beautifully and the variety and just plain cleverness of iPhone-specific games out there never ceases to amaze. Also, we shouldn't disregard the accelerometer either which is being used with great results as well. There's a reason why people are talking about the "iPhone economy" which is far from being just a term.
Let's remember that the iPhone economy is very small. Smaller than the Mac economy. Low single digits.
Let's also keep in mind that Apple has done a terrible job cultivating developers. The process of getting something into the app store remains difficult and the standards by which an app is judged are capricious. More than one developer has sworn off hoping for an iPhone goldmine. Life is too short.
Of course, one can look at it from the other side. The iPad is a hit, offering adventure games that no serious adventure gamer would be willing to play. (Think Wii racing sim.) A community grows up apart from PC, Mac, handheld, console or phone gaming. Apple and its developers get rich, the new audience gets entertained and, for everyone else, it will be as if nothing happened.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 4:25am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By MrLipid (31 JAN 2010 4:05am)
Let's remember that the iPhone economy is very small. Smaller than the Mac economy. Low single digits.
I can't quite agree with that statement. The iPhone has become Apple's biggest business, which is acknowledged by them: Apple, The iPhone Company. Please, understand I'm following this day by day and I'm not trying to fool you into a reality distortion field (jokes aside). The iPhone is huge.
Let's also keep in mind that Apple has done a terrible job cultivating developers. The process of getting something into the app store remains difficult and the standards by which an app is judged are capricious. More than one developer has sworn off hoping for an iPhone goldmine. Life is too short.
Irrelevant. For every developer complaining out there there's another one expressing satisfaction. Not to mention cases such as Flight Control, an indie game that has consistently sold 6000 copies a day for months - we're talking 180k a month. And no, that's not an isolated case, maybe not even the best one.
Of course, one can look at it from the other side. The iPad is a hit, offering adventure games that no serious adventure gamer would be willing to play. (Think Wii racing sim.) A community grows up apart from PC, Mac, handheld, console or phone gaming. Apple and its developers get rich, the new audience gets entertained and, for everyone else, it will be as if nothing happened.
I'm not sure about the "adventure game that no serious adventure gamer would be willing to play". Yes, that scenario could happen, I won't discuss that. But I'm convinced the iPad with its set of features can offer a lean and mean adventure experience, certainly pretty much anything that could be played on PCs and Macs.
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| 31 JAN 2010 at 4:43am |
SirDaveGuild Master
Posts : 4950
Joined: 17 OCT 2002
Location: US
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By MrLipid (31 JAN 2010 4:05am)
Originally Posted By Rael (31 JAN 2010 3:42am)
Originally Posted By MrLipid (31 JAN 2010 2:26am)
So what we're really waiting for is an audience made up of folks who aren't currently gamers on any platform who suddenly succumb to a device that reacts to a fingertip dragged or tapped on a highly polished sheet of glass.
Yes, which is exactly what happened with the iPhone, an already proven existing market. Say what you want about the touch controls and the glass display, they work beautifully and the variety and just plain cleverness of iPhone-specific games out there never ceases to amaze. Also, we shouldn't disregard the accelerometer either which is being used with great results as well. There's a reason why people are talking about the "iPhone economy" which is far from being just a term.
Let's remember that the iPhone economy is very small. Smaller than the Mac economy. Low single digits.
At the iPad announcement Jobs said that 75 million iPhones & iTouches have been sold (the proportion is conjectured at around 2/3 the former to 1/3 the latter though Jobs didn't specify). In Aug 2009, it was estimated that $200 million worth of iPhone/iTouch apps are sold each month. By any measure that isn't chickenfeed and it isn't low single digits (though I'm not sure what that meant anyway).
Let's also keep in mind that Apple has done a terrible job cultivating developers. The process of getting something into the app store remains difficult and the standards by which an app is judged are capricious. More than one developer has sworn off hoping for an iPhone goldmine. Life is too short.
This is a common refrain when it comes to how developers or even more generally, small businesses feel about large 'entities' such as Apple, eBay or Amazon. There's probably an element of truth to it strictly from their point of view. However, if one reviews even a cross-section of all the apps both free and paid available for the iPhone/iTouch one doesn't get the feeling of a restricted environment. In fact, if you read some of the reviews, people ask why Apple allowed some of them to be allowed in the app store. I would like to see the products from developers who have 'sworn off hoping for an iPhone goldmine' before giving that too much credibility.
The future ain't what it used to be!
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