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| 17 JAN 2003 at 6:30pm |
MichalNGrand Inquisitor
Posts : 7058
Joined: 14 SEP 2003
Status : Online | Originally Posted By Rael (17 JAN 2003 5:50pm)
You and your friend begin to discuss what to do. Your friend wants to take just the opaque box. You argue that the computer has already made his prediction -- the million dollars is either in the opaque box or it is not. It is not going to change. Whose argument is more correct?
If the supercomputer does not make mistakes, take only the opaque box (and the computer will have predicted that). If it can make mistakes, take both and always get at least $1,000
I forgot my sig.
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| 17 JAN 2003 at 7:44pm |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Smart answers but not quite satisfying
Let's assume the following:
- Nothing can be 100% accurately predicted (Heisenberg's Principle) unless, of course, we're talking of some sort of divine being here
- The super-computer has a very low error level.
So, your first choice is no longer valid. Now, the second one...
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| 17 JAN 2003 at 9:12pm |
MichalNGrand Inquisitor
Posts : 7058
Joined: 14 SEP 2003
Status : Online | Originally Posted By Rael (17 JAN 2003 7:44pm)
Let's assume the following:
- Nothing can be 100% accurately predicted (Heisenberg's Principle) unless, of course, we're talking of some sort of divine being here
- The super-computer has a very low error level.
I am assuming that once the computer made its prediction, the opaque box is sealed and either has one mil in it or not. In that case take both, because regardless of what the computer predicted, you'll always get at least one grand.
I forgot my sig.
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| 17 JAN 2003 at 9:22pm |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | That was exactly the same thing I told to myself but what if the computer predicts with a very high level of accuracy? It would have foreseen your decision thus you would miss the million. I mean, we're talking about a million here
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| 17 JAN 2003 at 10:02pm |
MichalNGrand Inquisitor
Posts : 7058
Joined: 14 SEP 2003
Status : Online | Originally Posted By Rael (17 JAN 2003 9:22pm)
That was exactly the same thing I told to myself but what if the computer predicts with a very high level of accuracy? It would have foreseen your decision thus you would miss the million. I mean, we're talking about a million here
At the point you are making your decision, that is irrelevant.
Let me rephrase that - what you choose to do cannot change what the computer had predicted earlier.
I forgot my sig.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 1:22am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | I know this puzzle - and I can't remember the guy's name... As I recall it was based on a belief system - predestination...
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 4:55am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By MichalN (17 JAN 2003 10:02pm)
Let me rephrase that - what you choose to do cannot change what the computer had predicted earlier.
Good point.
I know this puzzle - and I can't remember the guy's name... As I recall it was based on a belief system - predestination...
Very well - it's called "Newcomb's Paradox" and, while it might seem trivial, it's a very complex problem. I'll provide further details about it as soon as more people posts their thoughts.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:03am |
BelindaSchattenjger
Posts : 2093
Joined: 21 OCT 2002
Status : Online | I agree with Michal......take both boxes, that way you still come out ahead........either that, and this is a dream, and I'll wake up soon......cause I don't think this is for real....... heh
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:31am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | Very well - it's called "Newcomb's Paradox" and, while it might seem trivial, it's a very complex problem. I'll provide further details about it as soon as more people posts their thoughts.
That's the one !
In reality... it's not a paradox - But, it does provide some insite to ones personality...
Are you a one boxer or two boxer? Do you believe in predestination, or free will...
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:34am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By InlandAZ (18 JAN 2003 5:30am)
Are you a one boxer or two boxer? Do you believe in predestination, or free will...
Yes, that's the idea of the problem.
If you want an even more interesting debate think the same problem with God instead of the super-computer.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:37am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | If you want an even more interesting debate think the same problem with God instead of the super-computer.
Yes that's right - They're called Calvinist...
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:43am |
BelindaSchattenjger
Posts : 2093
Joined: 21 OCT 2002
Status : Online | As God instead of the computer?? Well, I sure wouldn't take the clear box, cause that would show a sign of Greed to God, which is a sin........so I guess it would have to be the opaque box, which there probably wouldn't be nothing in it, the way my luck is....... :-/
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:54am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | heheh - and this is why the question is soooo damn interesting. Two choices, each can be equally argued as correct - and yet... two different outcomes...
It all depends on your perception - Has your life been pre-determined (as a Calvinist believes) or can you make choices that affect the path.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:56am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | No, Belinda, you don't have to worry about sins in this problem. And, if you take the opaque box, God would have foreseen that and the box would have the million.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 5:59am |
MichalNGrand Inquisitor
Posts : 7058
Joined: 14 SEP 2003
Status : Online | Originally Posted By InlandAZ (18 JAN 2003 5:30am)
Are you a one boxer or two boxer? Do you believe in predestination, or free will...
Do you mean to say there are actually people who believe that if they took the opaque box, there would be a mil in it because they decided to take the opaque box?
Me, I believe in logic Predestination or free will is an interesting problem, but unfortunately undecidable (unless you can see into the future!). So there's not much point worrying about it.
Now that I think about it, I don't know which is more depressing: predestination because the world is screwed up and there's nothing we can do about it - or free will because it's all our fault
I forgot my sig.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:02am |
MichalNGrand Inquisitor
Posts : 7058
Joined: 14 SEP 2003
Status : Online | Originally Posted By Rael (18 JAN 2003 5:56am)
And, if you take the opaque box, God would have foreseen that and the box would have the million.
Isn't that greedy?
I forgot my sig.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:03am |
BelindaSchattenjger
Posts : 2093
Joined: 21 OCT 2002
Status : Online | The world is screwed up, and always will be, so don't worry about that........
You live one day at a time, and let fate take over......whatever happens was meant to be.......
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:07am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | Isn't that greedy?
But, greed has nothing to do with the problem... The problem is: Do you believe your path has already been determined. Or, has a higher power already decided what is going to happen.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:08am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By MichalN (18 JAN 2003 6:01am)
Isn't that greedy?
Yeah but it doesn't matter in the problem - let's say "what's in the opaque box is better".
Your reasoning is good but actually predictions are made day-by-day (with several different levels of accuracy). The question is: are people actions predictable?
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:09am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | whatever happens was meant to be.......
Don't tell me - you just watched Sign's didn't you...
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:14am |
BelindaSchattenjger
Posts : 2093
Joined: 21 OCT 2002
Status : Online | Originally Posted By InlandAZ (18 JAN 2003 6:08am)
Don't tell me - you just watched Sign's didn't you...
LOL....I did a couple nights ago.....how did you know that? *S*
I say Fate plays alot of your life.......where are we going with this??
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:14am |
Agustín CordesGuild Master
Posts : 5696
Joined: 23 OCT 2002
Location: AR, Buenos Aires
Status : Offline | Originally Posted By InlandAZ (18 JAN 2003 6:07am)
The problem is: Do you believe your path has already been determined. Or, has a higher power already decided what is going to happen.
Exactly!
I don't believe in a deterministic universe or, to put it a way, nothing controls my actions nor can predict them.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:18am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | Now that I think about it, I don't know which is more depressing: predestination because the world is screwed up and there's nothing we can do about it - or free will because it's all our fault
Yes, and this is the paradox.
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| 18 JAN 2003 at 6:20am |
InlandAZGuild Master
Posts : 5586
Joined: 4 MAY 2007
Status : Offline | I don't believe in a deterministic universe or, to put it a way, nothing controls my actions nor can predict them.
DITTO
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